Official figures on crime and drink just don't add up

The Home Office was under fire last night after publishing statistics purporting to show that violent crime fell in the weeks after pubs were allowed to extend opening hours.

The Tories accused ministers of spinning "bogus" figures to justify the reforms and the Statistics Commission, an independent watchdog set up to ensure that Government figures are trustworthy, said it was concerned about the way they had been compiled and released.

The one-off exercise compared violent offences recorded by the police in December last year with those in October, the month before the reforms. Normally, figures are compared with the preceding quarter or with the same time-frame of the previous year.

The Home Office said that violent crime had fallen by 11 per cent, from 103,061 in October to 90,847 in December, a period which coincided with a big increase in policing of trouble spots after the licensing reforms took effect on Nov 24.

Ministers said the fall in violence demonstrated that more flexible licensing hours and tougher enforcement helped to reduce crime, confounding the forecasts of an increase in alcohol-related disorder.

Tony Blair said in the Commons: "Flexible licensing balanced by additional powers was the right thing to do and has been shown to be the right thing to do."

Charles Clarke, the Home Secretary, said: "These figures are a credit to all those committed to tackling alcohol-related disorder."

But the exercise again called into question the use of statistics by the Home Office. They did not conform to any recognised methodology and were also leaked to certain media outlets for maximum political impact.

It was impossible to tell from the figures whether alcohol-related violence had fallen or whether more police on the streets had pushed down offences.

Yet this did not stop ministers from hailing the figures as a vindication of their policies.

In December, a report from the Statistics Commission said the Home Office should be stripped of responsibility for publishing crime statistics because public trust had been eroded, partly by departmental manipulation of their timing and context.

After the criticism, Mr Clarke set up a review of crime statistics that is due to report in the summer.

Richard Alldritt, the chief executive of the Statistics Commission, said: "We are concerned about the way in which the figures are coming out and would like to see a proper statistical statement."

David Davis, the shadow home secretary, said: "What this shows is that if you put more bobbies on the street you will cut crime.

"However, these figures are a result of a six-week crackdown on violence which cost £2.5 million - what happens when this money runs out?"

He added: "The Government should not use these bogus, inappropriate and spun statistics to justify its 24-hour drinking proposals."

Lynne Featherstone, the Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman, said: "The police have our full support in cracking down on alcohol-fuelled violence, and proper enforcement has clearly led to fewer shops and pubs selling alcohol to under-18s.

"However, public confidence is seriously undermined when sloppy statistics are presented as fact."

(From Philip Johnston, Home Affairs Editor, at The Daily Telegraph)

Ed: use of data in this way by a Public Company would lead to the resignation of the Chairman.